Red Hat Enterprise Linux 6 speculation

There has been much speculation regarding Red Hat Enterprise Linux 6 will be shipped and support regarding RHEL5. Many of us speculated that RHEL6 would ship Q1 2010. While this may still occur, there is speculation that things may push to Q2 2010 or beyond. Who knows, and the consensus is to not plan for a ship date. It will happen when it happens. Red Hat doesn't make advanced announcements of release dates for RHEL the way that the Fedora Project has a Release Schedule plan. We already know approximately when to expect Fedora 13, give or take a few weeks to a month. But that's exactly why Red Hat should not make advance announcements of released dates. The RHEL product is based on Fedora's development schedule to a large part. If Fedora slips, as Fedora 12 did by 2 weeks, then that potentially pushes out RHEL's releases.

Having said all that, I would like to speculate on which version of Fedora that RHEL6 will be based on. We can see from past history that typically the Fedora release and Red Hat Linux just prior to RHEL was used as the basis for the RHEL release.

Some quick data from all the previous mentioned sources:

Red Hat Linux 7.2 → Red Hat Enterprise Linux 2.1
Red Hat Linux 9 → Red Hat Enterprise Linux 3
Fedora Core 3 → Red Hat Enterprise Linux 4
Fedora Core 6 → Red Hat Enterprise Linux 5

RHL7.2 (Enigma), October 22, 2001. Linux 2.4.9-21smp
RHL9 (Shrike), March 31, 2003. Linux 2.4.20-8
FC3 (Heidelberg), November 08, 2004. Linux 2.6.9
FC6 (Zod), 2006–10–24 Linux 2.6.18

Red Hat Enterprise Linux 2.1 ES (Panama), May 2003. Linux 2.4.9
Red Hat Enterprise Linux 3 (Taroon), 22 October 2003. Linux 2.4.21
Red Hat Enterprise Linux 4 (Nahant), 2005-02-15. Linux 2.6.9
Red Hat Enterprise Linux 5 (Tikanga), 2007-03-14. Linux 2.6.18

While I didn't site all Fedora/RHL releases, I did confirm that there was no Fedora/RHL release after the one used as the basis for the next RHEL version. This could change any time, and this year may be the first time this occurs, should RHEL6 be based on F12, and slip into late Q2 2010 and F13 ship on time. Only time will tell.

What's that, did I make a speculation for RHEL6 to be based on F12? Yes, indeed. Based on the time line history we have seen so far, I've speculated about this to myself and on #centos-social for some time.

In trolling the inner-webs for things such as "RHEL6," "EL6," and so on, I found this Red Hat Bugzilla Listing: 515285. This is the only one RHEL6 bug that isn't locked down from the public's view to date that I've been able to find. What's the big deal? Comparing all the prior RHL/Fedora releases and their kernels and RPM versions, RHEL releases did not deviate from these MAJOR.MINOR versions (other than patch version levels). I do not think Red Hat will deviate from this practice going forward either.

So, if this assumption is correct, that all RHEL MAJOR.MINOR kernel and RPM versions match up with the Fedora/RHL release on which they are based, we can draw from the data in Bug 515285. We see that the bug is in reference to libvirt-0.7.1 (el6). We further see that kernel 2.6.31 (el6) is referenced as well. Both of these are what shipped in F12. We can see that Fedora 13 has already moved on to newer libvert and kernel versions.

This doesn't make it a for sure thing. The RHEL6 testers are testing what is available at the time. Nothing stops Red Hat from doing a refresh to F13 testing versions, or even from F12 updates, or even some sort of version hybrid between the two. It's too soon to tell, but one thing I think can safely be said is that RHEL6 will not be based on F11 or prior versions as previously speculated all over the inner-webs.
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Update: It appears my speculation was spot on. While I won't totally call it until I see it, there is news in the wind about RHEL6 Beta being out and RHEL6 based on F12. I won't link to it, but you can find it if you Google for "rhelv5-list rhel6 f12".